12AM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Monday, January 5. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe storms are not expected on Monday or Monday night.
Discussion
Isolated thunderstorm coverage should be confined to two regimes in the West on Monday. A basal shortwave trough will become a closed low as it becomes cutoff and drifts south off coastal CA. Isolated thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the morning, along a portion of the north-central CA coast amid scant buoyancy prior to the offshore wave dropping southward. Farther east, low-amplitude shortwave impulses will shift from the eastern Great Basin across the southern Rockies to the central High Plains by afternoon. Near these disturbances, cold mid-level temperatures may support minimal buoyancy for sporadic lightning with low-topped convection from morning to mid-afternoon.