1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Monday, January 5. NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Thunder potential appears negligible on Monday and Monday night.
Discussion
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, while a separate shortwave impulse shifts south off the central to southern CA coast. Buoyancy will be minimal in the West, generally confined to coastal CA and parts of the Great Basin. A few lightning flashes are possible in both regions. But with weaker large-scale ascent compared to D2/Sunday, thunder probabilities appear to be less than 10 percent.
Elsewhere, conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection through the period.