2AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday, August 29. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
A couple of strong storms cannot be ruled out from the Sabine River Valley to the southern High Plains.
Synopsis
An upper-level cutoff low will meander over New England while upper ridging prevails over the western and central U.S. on Friday. As surface high pressure remains in place across the Great Lakes and Interior West, weak surface troughing will encourage low-level moisture return across the Plains states. With daytime heating, thunderstorms may develop off of a remnant outflow boundary across central TX into the Sabine River Valley that was left behind by storms from Day 2. Storms are also expected to develop off of the higher terrain across the High Plains given modest upslope low-level flow. Adequate low-level moisture, overspread by modest mid-level lapse rates/vertical wind shear, will support isolated strong thunderstorms across the southern High Plains toward the Sabine River Valley (along the outflow boundary). Sub-severe wind/hail should accompany the stronger storms. However, mediocre thermodynamic vertical profiles (evident via forecast soundings), suggest that severe storms should be quite sparse, with no severe probabilities introduced this outlook.