1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Thursday, July 17. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe potential is low/uncertain on Thursday.
Discussion
Low-amplitude westerly flow will persist from the northern Rockies to the Great Lakes and Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Meanwhile, the subtropical upper high over the Southeast will slowly spread westward. At the surface, a cold front will extend from northwest OH to northwest OK and the TX Panhandle at the beginning of the period. Much of the boundary will stall/move very little over the Plains and Mid-MS/Lower OH Valley. Meanwhile, the northern portions of the front will spread east across the Lower Great Lakes and portions of the Northeast.
Some severe potential could develop in the vicinity of the surface boundary across the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic vicinity. However, large disparity exists among forecast guidance with regards to the position of the cold front and any potential MCVs from prior day's convection. This uncertainty precludes severe probabilities at this time, but could become necessary in later outlooks as details become better resolved.