1AM Day 3 Convective Outlook for Friday, July 18. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST
SUMMARY
Severe thunderstorm potential appear low/uncertain on Friday.
Synopsis
Broad, cyclonic upper flow will persist across the northern tier of the U.S. on Friday. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge will intensify over the Southeast and southern Plains. A weak shortwave impulse and/or MCV is forecast to move from the OH Valley toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity near a stalled surface front. This may provide focus for some severe potential Friday afternoon/early evening. However, confidence in this scenario is low as prior day's convection will heavily influence convective evolution on Friday.
Further west, a surface trough/weak lee low development across the central High Plains will allow for northward transport of richer boundary layer moisture from the southern in the central and northern Plains. Forcing mechanisms are unclear, and capping may suppress convection. If storms can develop in the warm advection regime, some severe potential would be possible given the very moist and unstable environment. Large model disparity also is noted in the location and evolution of the Plains surface low. Overall the risk appears too uncertain/conditional at this time to include probabilities.