12PM Day 2 Convective Outlook for Sunday, July 13. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL VIRGINIA INTO PARTS OF NEW YORK AND ROUGHLY FROM THE OZARKS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS
SUMMARY
Marginally severe thunderstorms producing strong wind gusts will be possible across the eastern U.S. from the mid-Atlantic region northward into upstate New York. Additional isolated strong storms may occur from southeast Missouri into northwest Texas.
From central VA/NC northward into northern NY
An upper trough will eject northeastward across Quebec, with modest midlevel winds glancing parts of the Northeast. Veering low-level winds will result in a slowing front, and as such a moist and unstable air mass will remain across the lower Great Lakes. Farther south, into central VA/NC, a surface trough will deepen as heating occurs, with weak flow aloft.
While low-end in nature, sporadic damaging gusts cannot be ruled out on the local level, from VA/NC northward into NY within the warm sector. Thunderstorm probabilities are high, though little organization is expected.
Lower OH Valley across the Ozarks and into northern Texas
Early day rain and thunderstorms may be ongoing across parts of MO, OK and AR in association with a weak upper trough. Models indicate outflows may stabilize the air mass over parts of the area, but pockets of stronger instability should redevelop. The strongest heating will likely extend from western TX into northwest TX and this should aid sporadic strong cells capable of locally strong gusts.